Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.033175 0.039030 0.045105 0.051842 0.059069 0.066556 0.074868
2025-11-23 0.022657 0.030759 0.039735 0.050236 0.062024 0.074710 0.089267
2025-11-30 0.017217 0.026652 0.037713 0.051205 0.066855 0.084135 0.104385
2025-12-07 0.013578 0.023851 0.036530 0.052545 0.071604 0.093058 0.118586
2025-12-14 0.011215 0.022165 0.036308 0.054692 0.077014 0.102508 0.133184
2025-12-21 0.008856 0.020031 0.035196 0.055489 0.080614 0.109700 0.145058
2025-12-28 0.008236 0.020260 0.037062 0.059914 0.088506 0.121846 0.162591
2026-01-04 0.005869 0.017371 0.034455 0.058440 0.089052 0.125223 0.169855
2026-01-11 0.004645 0.016073 0.033877 0.059460 0.092566 0.132040 0.181062
2026-01-18 0.003476 0.014579 0.032852 0.059766 0.095098 0.137612 0.190751
2026-01-25 0.002593 0.013383 0.032132 0.060387 0.097957 0.143525 0.200798
2026-02-01 0.001846 0.012211 0.031320 0.060790 0.100470 0.148966 0.210243
2026-02-08 0.000906 0.010054 0.028786 0.058767 0.099919 0.150798 0.215588
2026-02-15 0.000315 0.008154 0.026419 0.056833 0.099403 0.152635 0.220935
2026-02-22 0.000129 0.007469 0.026089 0.057822 0.102725 0.159223 0.232010
2026-03-01 0.000038 0.006988 0.026071 0.059240 0.106598 0.166489 0.243901
2026-03-08 0.000008 0.006822 0.026633 0.061522 0.111633 0.175212 0.257567
2026-03-15 NaN 0.006236 0.026285 0.062369 0.114694 0.181431 0.268167
2026-03-22 NaN 0.006837 0.028404 0.067067 0.123032 0.194344 0.286968
2026-03-29 NaN 0.005603 0.026559 0.065503 0.122744 0.196287 0.292314
2026-04-05 NaN 0.005193 0.026413 0.066585 0.126077 0.202821 0.303282
2026-04-12 NaN 0.004624 0.025822 0.066909 0.128334 0.207964 0.312525
2026-04-19 NaN 0.004182 0.025458 0.067568 0.131037 0.213664 0.322447